Uber built its business by not owning cars. It is now committing about $10 billion to autonomous vehicles, and the robotaxi market it is entering looks very different from the one it gave up six years ago. Waymo operates in 15 US cities, Tesla's purpose-built Cybercab is carrying paying riders in Austin, and Amazon's Zoox is expanding testing. The competition has moved from technology demos to fleets, depots and capital.
An analysis published this week by Smart Cities Dive shows how different the leading players' strategies are, and why Uber's bet is both necessary and risky.
Where the $10 Billion Goes
The Financial Times first reported the plan in early September. It is split into two parts:
- About $7.5 billion for vehicle procurement: robotaxis Uber will buy and put on its network
- More than $2.5 billion in equity stakes in partners including Lucid and Rivian
The partner commitments are large. Rivian has agreed to supply 10,000 fully autonomous vehicles, with an option for up to 50,000 by 2030, starting in San Francisco and Miami in 2028. Lucid and Nuro are each committed to at least 20,000 robotaxis, and public Lucid rides are expected in the Bay Area and Los Angeles this year. Uber already offers autonomous trips with Avride in Dallas and Motional in Las Vegas.
This is a major change for Uber. It will own vehicles and operate charging and maintenance depots, which is capital-heavy work it previously left to drivers. The investment came around the same time Uber cut roughly 10% of its workforce, about 3,300 people, in early September.
Waymo Pulls Away and Goes It Alone
Waymo is still the clear leader. It says it provides more than 500,000 driverless rides a week in the US and aims to pass one million a week by the end of 2026. On 1 September it opened commercial service in San Diego, Tampa and Denver, its first market in Colorado. One analyst estimates Waymo took about a quarter of San Francisco's ride-hailing market within roughly 20 months of launching there.
Waymo is also reducing its reliance on Uber. The two ended their Phoenix partnership in May, and reports say the Atlanta and Austin arrangements will end in 2028. That leaves Uber needing its own supply of vehicles, which is the reason for the $10 billion commitment.
Tesla Competes on Price, Zoox Plays Catch-Up
Tesla has public rides in Model Y vehicles across several Florida and Texas cities. Since 4 September, its steering-wheel-free Cybercab has carried public riders in part of Austin. One tracker says Tesla now covers seven metro areas in three states, the widest US footprint after Waymo.
Zoox runs paid public service only in Las Vegas and has a San Francisco waitlist pending permits. This month it started testing in Houston and San Diego with safety drivers in retrofitted Toyota Highlanders.
Spencer Penn, CEO of LightSource and a former Tesla and Waymo executive, described the three strategies this way: Waymo is competing on safety and experience, Tesla on price, and Uber on availability. He said the outcome depends on how quickly driving quality stops being something passengers notice.
Why It Matters
Robotaxis are now a question of infrastructure and capital. Voltera CEO Frank Reig told Smart Cities Dive that building fleet infrastructure takes three years or more, including charging depots, zoning approvals and landlord leases that can run 30 years. The companies that secure depot sites and grid capacity now will have an advantage that software improvements alone cannot close.
For Uber, the risk is on its balance sheet. For the industry, the risk is to its reputation. Labour groups warn about job losses in transportation, and safety advocates want standard disclosure of miles driven and crash data. Goldman Sachs Research projects US robotaxi revenue of $19 billion by 2030 and $48 billion by 2035. That is a sizeable market, but not large enough for every well-funded competitor to succeed.
What to Watch
The key milestones are Lucid's first public Uber rides, Waymo's progress towards one million weekly trips, and whether Tesla expands the Cybercab beyond its limited Austin zone. Uber's $10 billion will buy vehicles, but it will not by itself build the operating experience Waymo has developed over a decade.
